Vulnerability in Coastal Touristic Cities Impacted by Tropical Cyclones and Landslides in a Changing Climate: A Case Study from Los Cabos, Mexico

Coastal areas are rich in diverse resources and are ideal locations for developing the tourism industry. Thus, in coastal tourist centers, the growth rate is high, although often disorganized and unsustainable. In Mexico, tourist centers have fostered poverty belts where inhabitants live in conditions of high vulnerability due to hydrometeorological and geological phenomena in regular and irregular settlements. Thus, various coastal tourist areas in Mexico have been impacted by these types of phenomena, causing deaths, a high number of victims, and significant economic losses. Previous studies have confirmed that tropical cyclones can trigger landslides resulting from intense rainfall; however, risk estimation models and their components are presented separately. This paper presents a model based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) framework to estimate vulnerability to tropical cyclones and landslides in the context of climate change. The integration of both disruptive phenomena and climate change was carried out in the exposure sub-index. The socioeconomic situation of the inhabitants was included in the sensitivity sub-index. Vulnerability was modeled for the near, medium, and distant future, with population growth projections for the towns of Cabo San Lucas and San José del Cabo, Mexico. Climate change associated with urban expansion will increase exposure from 121.27 to 956.74 km2, while the vulnerable population is expected to increase from 133,266 to 250,386 by 2100. The model proved to be an effective tool for determining the combined vulnerability of both phenomena, allowing for the generation of strategies for decision-makers to implement actions focused on reducing vulnerability and building resilience.