Spatio-Temporal Dynamics of African Swine Fever in Free-Ranging Wild Boar (Sus scrofa): Insights from Six Years of Surveillance and Control in Slovakia
African swine fever (ASF) has reshaped wild boar (<i>Sus scrofa</i>) populations and management across Europe since its reintroduction in 2007. ASF reached Slovakia in August 2019, when wild boar population size and harvest were at six-decade maximums. We analyzed data from six years (2019-2024) of national surveillance and control to quantify spatio-temporal ASF patterns in free-ranging wild boar. Using monthly virological (PCR) and serological (antibody) data from active (hunted) and passive (found dead) surveillance, we (1) estimated temporal variation in the effective reproduction number (R<sub>t</sub>); (2) modeled spatio-temporal prevalence in Slovakia and its eastern, central, and western regions; (3) linked these dynamics to management indicators such as wild boar density, harvest, and mortality; and (4) proposed measures to increase surveillance and control effectiveness. Passive surveillance showed greater diagnostic sensitivity than active surveillance for case detection (PCR: 46.5% vs. 0.48%; antibodies: 7.62% vs. 0.75%). R<sub>t</sub> peaked at 3.83 in March 2021, then declined but periodically exceeded 1.0 through late 2024. Virological prevalence showed strong late-winter/early-spring seasonality and a persistent east-to-west gradient: peaks occurred first in the east (March 2021, March 2023), with the center surpassing the east in October 2023 and a subsequent rise in the west. Seroprevalence lagged and shifted westward later, peaking in March 2023 and increasing in western Slovakia from mid-2024. Wild boar density decreased by 36.3% from 2019 to 2024 and harvest-based density by 42.8%, returning to post-classical swine fever levels (2009-2013). We recommend prioritizing targeted carcass searches and rapid removal, maintaining low wild boar densities through sustained harvest of adult females, modernizing population monitoring methods, enhancing hunters' compliance, and strengthening cross-border coordination to improve surveillance and control, thereby slowing ASF spread across Europe.
Authors
- Peter Smolko (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7210-2335)
- R. Janto
- Jozef Bučko (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0916-6379)
- Rudolf Kropil (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2775-1969)
- Martin Chudý
- Tibor Lebocký
- Marek Štefanec
- Filip Kubek
Institutions
- Slovak Medical University (SK)
- Technická univerzita vo Zvolene (SK)
- State Veterinary Administration (CZ)
- National Forest Centre (SK)
Publication Details
- Journal
- Veterinary Sciences
- Published
- 2025-10-23
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.3390/vetsci12111027
- Citations
- 1
- Primary Topic
- Animal Disease Management and Epidemiology
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 1.90