Dynamic and flexible climate-adaptive long-term planning in irrigated-agriculture

Uncertainty in future climate requires adaptation planning to be dynamic and flexible and adaptation pathways provide a guidance structure for planners by sequencing the adaptation actions over time. Pathways to address the climate risks in Lower Bhavani Irrigation Project in India was developed in this study. We analyzed climate adaptive water management actions that can play a central role in building agricultural resilience. Incremental cost analysis was carried out to test the financial feasibility of adaptation options. The costs for employing the selected adaptation measures are weighed against their benefits in making the irrigation system more robust. Three climate adaptive-water management measures– aerobic rice cultivation, alternate wetting and drying and deficit irrigation were examined. The financial viability analysis had shown that additional investments made to make the system more robust is justifiable. Climate adaptation pathways developed show that deficit irrigation will work without failure for the entire planning period under the low emission scenario, when it is implemented individually or in a sequence with aerobic rice and alternate wetting and drying. However, implementing aerobic rice or AWD offers the flexibility to change the course of adaptation path in the future, depending on the availability of financial resources. With proper institutionalization and regulation of irrigation supply, suitable plans can be implemented through time in such a complex water resources system under future climate. • Adaptation pathways and ICA to assess technical and financial feasibility. • Stress testing using aridity index and SDR to define adaptation tipping points. • Adaptation pathways proposed for flexible adaptation planning decisions. • Dual pathway framing to show when and at what conditions to change the path.