Modeling multi-species wildlife trafficking: Economic incentives, ecological risks, and enforcement tradeoffs

Transnational syndicates coordinate complex wildlife trafficking operations, often concealing multiple species' products within legal trade flows. This complexity poses major challenges for enforcement and conservation. This study develops a dynamic coupled ecological-economic model to examine three key aspects of illicit wildlife trade: the planning of maritime shipments, the optimal combinations of trafficked contraband, and the resulting impacts on multi-species population dynamics over time. The model analyzes the behavior of profit-maximizing syndicates engaged in trafficking elephant ivory and pangolin scales from Africa to East Asian black markets. Findings show that multi-species shipments generate higher returns than single-species consignments. Trafficking levels are highly sensitive to detection probabilities at ports, while relatively inelastic to fluctuations in black-market prices, shipping costs, and logistical costs. These results remain robust in the post-pandemic context, despite significant price declines in ivory and scales. This implies that improving port detection capabilities may offer greater marginal impact in disrupting trafficking flows than policies targeting market demand alone. The model's ecological component highlights species-specific vulnerabilities, with some populations facing steeper risks under continued exploitation. Overall, the framework demonstrates how economic incentives, logistical constraints, and ecological feedbacks jointly shape illicit trade outcomes, offering insights for the design of more effective, multi-species conservation enforcement strategies. • Develops ecological-economic model of multi-species trafficking by syndicates • Shows detection—not prices or logistics—is primary constraint on trafficking flows • Finds multi-species shipments yield greater returns than single-species strategies • Uneven population collapse risks, calling for coordinated cross-species efforts. • Results hold post-pandemic despite declines in black-market prices and seizure rates.