Evolution and structural analysis of China’s road traffic regulatory system (1949–2023): institutional change, policy tool diversification and adaptive governance

Abstract This study systematically examines the evolutionary trajectory and structural characteristics of China’s Road Traffic Regulatory System (CRTRS) from 1949 to 2023, aiming to unravel its transformation from fragmented, punitive enforcement to a coordinated, technology-enhanced governance model; drawing on historical institutionalism and policy feedback theory, it divides CRTRS’s development into three periods—Exploratory (1949–1986), Development (1987–2002) and Refinement (2003–2023)—and employs quantitative content analysis on 217 central policy documents to identify critical policy tools, as well as their dynamic roles in systemic adaptation. Key findings reveal a paradigm shift from institutional authority to professionalized, preventive governance, driven by policy tool diversification and integration of public engagement with technological innovation, with historical institutionalism illuminating how path dependencies and critical junctures shaped institutional layering, and policy feedback theory explaining how stakeholder responses drove iterative adjustments in policy tools. The study introduces a dual-system framework distinguishing between accident-inducing and accident-containment subsystems, operationalizing the System Theoretic Accident Model and Processes (STAMP) to balance risk mitigation and adaptive strategies. Theoretically, this research enriches the adaptive governance literature by demonstrating how tool diversification enhances regulatory resilience in centralized systems—supported by historical institutionalist and policy feedback perspectives—challenging assumptions about centralization rigidity, while practically, it provides a framework for evidence-based policy design, emphasizing data-driven and participatory tools to address complex socio-economic and infrastructural challenges in road safety governance.