Forest losses are associated with oil and gas seismic cutlines in Northeastern British Columbia, Canada

Oil and gas (OG) development involves the creation of geophysical (seismic) cutlines at the time of surveying for OG deposits. The width of the cutlines has reduced over the past two decades due to transition from high to low-impact geophysical surveys for OG deposits. However, the density of the cutlines on landscapes is still an issue of concern because of how long it takes for forests to recover after the creation of the cutlines. Here, using a quartic kernel function, the density of seismic cutlines was calculated for the 69 river basins of northeastern British Columbia. Geographically weighted regression (GWR) and multi-scale geographically weighted regression (MGWR) models were used to establish a relationship between the density of seismic cutlines, distance from cutlines, slope, slope aspect, elevation (independent variables), and forest cover loss (dependent variable) between 2000 and 2020. The MGWR analysis shows that seismic cutline density and distance from the cutlines explain 40% of the variance in the forest cover losses that occurred in the river basins [R2 = 0.397, p-value = 0.028]. In the GWR model, seismic cutline density and distance from the cutlines explain 34% of the variance in forest losses [R2 = 0.341, p-value = 0.032]. The study outcome reinforces the robust applicability of MGWR in the study of spatial relations. These models set a tone for further analysis of the spatial relationship between forests and OG activities, and more importantly, provide spatial information for land managers whose role is to manage the impacts of energy development.