Conformance analysis of land use outcomes with land use plan in Tanzania: the case of Mtanza-Msona and Mbunju-Mvuleni villages in Rufiji district

Village Land Use Plans (VLUPs) are essential in guiding land users to choose land uses that meet their needs while safeguarding natural resources. However, the extent to which VLUPs have influenced actual land use outcomes remains limited. This study examined existing VLUPs by evaluating the degree of conformance and non-conformance in managing various land uses, along with the underlying reasons, using Mtanza-Msona and Mbunju Mvuleni villages in Rufiji District as case studies. A cross-sectional research design and mixed research approaches were used to collect data. Assessment of Land Use Land Cover Change (LULCC) was conducted through Geographical Information System (GIS) spatial analysis tools to oversee the change since VLUPs were implemented. A spatial overlay method was used to quantitatively compare LULCC with the VLUPs, determining the level of conformance and nonconformance. Additionally, Key Informant Interviews and Focus Group Discussions were conducted to understand the reasons for conformance and non-conformance with the VLUPs. The study revealed that there is a degree of success of the existing VLUPs in guiding village land use outcomes. This success is influenced by factors such as the presence of signboards, community involvement during the planning process, boundary demarcation, and clear bylaws stipulating fines and penalties that have helped community members understand and respect the land use regulations, leading to an increased level of conformance over time. Alternatively, non-conformance remains a concern, particularly in areas of cultivation and forest. This is due to several factors, including lack of benefit sharing or incentives, inadequate planning capacity by responsible agencies, and insufficient financial resources. Other contributing factors are community apathy members, conflicts between land use plans, and limited allocation of areas for livestock, whose numbers continue to increase. Thus, addressing these issues would be an essential step to increase conformance and guide village land use outcomes successfully.