A systematic review of models used to estimate undiagnosed HIV prevalence in high-income low-prevalence countries and territories

CD4 + back-calculation models, notably the online accessible ECDC model, have been most commonly used. These are well suited to surveillance systems like New Zealand's, which collect demographic and exposure details and CD4 + cell counts at HIV diagnosis, but limited exposure group size and seroprevalence information.

Authors

Julia Scott (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0008-6347-2941)
Peter Saxton (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8696-0755)
Jason J. Ong (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5784-7403)
Andrew T. Anglemyer (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9091-496X)
Zoe Kumbaroff

Institutions

University of Auckland (NZ)
University of Waikato (NZ)
Monash University (AU)
University of Otago (NZ)

Publication Details

Journal: AIDS
Published: 2025-10-22
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1097/qad.0000000000004390
Primary Topic: HIV/AIDS Research and Interventions
Type: article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact: 0.00

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article

A systematic review of models used to estimate undiagnosed HIV prevalence in high-income low-prevalence countries and territories

Julia Scott, Peter Saxton, Jason J. Ong, Andrew T. Anglemyer et al.

Oct 22, 2025

AIDS

HIV/AIDS Research and Interventions

article

A systematic review of models used to estimate undiagnosed HIV prevalence in high-income low-prevalence countries and territories

Julia Scott, Peter Saxton, Jason J. Ong, Andrew T. Anglemyer, Zoe Kumbaroff

October 22, 2025article en

Abstract

CD4 + back-calculation models, notably the online accessible ECDC model, have been most commonly used. These are well suited to surveillance systems like New Zealand's, which collect demographic and exposure details and CD4 + cell counts at HIV diagnosis, but limited exposure group size and seroprevalence information.

AIDSVol. 40(2)

University of Auckland (NZ), University of Waikato (NZ), Monash University (AU), University of Otago (NZ)

Openalex Percentile: Top 64%

HIV/AIDS Research and Interventions

DOI Open Access PDF OpenAlex

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A systematic review of models used to estimate undiagnosed HIV prevalence in high-income low-prevalence countries and territories — Julia Scott, Peter Saxton, et al. · AIDS (2025) | TGRS Research Map | TGRS