Regional differences, dynamic evolution, and driving factors of ecological resilience in China’s urban agglomerations

With the ongoing progress of urbanization, the urban ecosystem is becoming increasingly fragile, exacerbated further by the emergence of urban agglomerations. Based on the 'Pressure-State-Response' model and panel data covering the period from 2010 to 2021, the step-by-step vertical and horizontal tiered evaluation method is employed to calculate the scores of ecological resilience in China's urban agglomerations. The Dagum's Gini coefficient, global and local Moran's index, unite strength and unite threshold, Markov chain, and geographic detector are utilized to reveal regional disparities, dynamic evolution, and driving factors of ecological resilience in China's urban agglomerations. The results reveal several significant findings: (1) The ecological resilience in Chinese urban agglomerations exhibited a fluctuating yet upward trend. (2) Although disparities in the ecological resilience of China's urban agglomerations are decreasing, differences between them remain significant. (3) Spatial correlation is evident in the ecological resilience of China's urban agglomerations. High-high clusters are primarily found in the eastern and upgrading urban agglomerations, while low-low clusters are concentrated in the western and fostering urban agglomerations. (4) The number of cities exceeding the ecological resilience threshold is gradually increasing, with core cities playing a pivotal role. (5) The probability of transition in a city is affected by the ecological resilience states of adjacent cities. (6) Driving factors such as Internet penetration rate, informatization level, and innovation capacity have significant but heterogeneous effects on ecological resilience. This paper enlightens that spatial co-governance and zoning management of ecological resilience are crucial for achieving regional ecological security.