Projection of age-standardised mortality rates for 23 cancer types in India: a nationwide projection until 2030 using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models

The projections reveal diverging mortality patterns across different cancer types. For both genders, the ASMR for mouth oropharynx had the highest estimation of 13.75 (95% CI: 12.69 to 14.81) per 100000 population by 2030 from a baseline of 10.21 in 2000. Breast and cervical cancer showed estimations of 6.62 and 6.03 in 2030, respectively. Conversely, mortality rate projections for several cancers declined, most notably cervical cancer and stomach cancer CONCLUSIONS: Our projections indicate a rise linked lifestyle and metabolic factors and a decline in infection-related and tobacco-related cancers. These underscore the need for strengthening preventive and screening programmes for the former, while continuing to invest in successful interventions for the latter.