Assessing Yield Gaps and Risks in Cropping Systems of Southern Brazil

ABSTRACT While studies often focus on increasing yields of individual crops, optimising cropping systems through adjustments in crop type, frequency and timing can also enhance annual production. Extending the soybean sowing period, motivated by the search for higher yield potential and greater cropping system efficiency, complicates the ability of maturity groups to effectively capture genotype–environment interactions in subtropical environments. This study aimed to: (i) quantify the potential and energy yield gaps of cropping systems in current Southern Brazil croplands, and (ii) analyse the energetic variability among agricultural cropping systems in the region. The main cropping systems were identified and evaluated over a 16‐year period using crop simulation models, incorporating region‐specific agronomic practices, climate and soil data. Metrics such as water‐limited energy potential and energy gaps were used to assess performance and risk. Cropping systems with increased intensity can raise annual energy yields by up to 151 GJ ha −1 year −1 in the Paraná region and reduce energy yield gaps by 50 GJ ha −1 . In the Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina region, the gains were 87 and 41 GJ ha −1 year −1 , respectively. More intensive systems also showed lower yield variability and enhanced production stability. These improvements support more stable and diversified income for growers in Southern Brazil. Implementing intensive cropping systems can significantly boost agricultural productivity, mitigate risks and enhance profitability through better resource use and crop sequencing.