Re-examining the Chronological Framework and Human Occupation Pattern of the North Loess Plateau Using Bayesian Modelling

Abstract In 2012, the 400-hectare Shimao site ( 2200–1700 cal BC ) in the North Loess Plateau was recognised as a late Neolithic stone fortification. Subsequently, radiocarbon dates from Shimao and neighbouring sites including Dakou, Xinhua and Zhukaigou became available. Given the lack of a comprehensive analysis of the chronological sequence in the region, this study conducts a thorough review of all published radiocarbon dates from the North Loess Plateau spanning 2800 to 1500 BC to reevaluate the current chronology and patterns of human occupation shifts. These dates were subjected to quality control measures, followed by calibration and Bayesian modelling using OxCal v 4.4.4. The analysis reveals a trend of human occupation shifting southward in the region; however, the radiocarbon sequence does not exhibit a clear pattern that aligns with the notion of distinct ‘cultural period’ transitions suggested by the conventional typo-chronological framework. In light of this, an alternative chronological framework is introduced, emphasising the timing of regional concentration and change of human occupation, to offer another possible interpretation for the transition. This revised framework highlights a dynamic transition that involves integration, reconfiguration and transformation among settlement groups within the region, allowing a coverage of multiple ‘cultural groups’ in various sub-regions during a single period.