Research on the mid-term prediction method of geological hazards and meteorological risks in the power grid

Transmission lines have a wide coverage area and long transmission distance, passing through many areas with harsh environmental conditions, complex geological terrain, and variable climate along the way. Geological disasters such as landslides, collapses, and mudslides occur frequently in the Yangtze River Basin and southwestern mountainous areas of China, posing a serious threat to the safe operation of railway lines. How to choose the most suitable model and effectively optimize the model for China's complex and diverse geological environment is an urgent problem to be solved. Currently, there are shortcomings in the research on mid-term prediction of geological hazards and meteorological risks in key power facilities, and it is necessary to combine the characteristics of geological hazards in key power facilities to study the mid-term prediction model of geological hazards and meteorological risks. This article calculates the average and annual average of the variable in different years and weeks based on historical data, and establishes an annual trend model using the annual average and year series. Combining the weekly adjustment coefficient and annual trend model, a mid-term (weekly) prediction model for geological hazard meteorological risk is established, and a wide area geological hazard risk prediction analysis is carried out nationwide.