Identification of key links in integrated energy systems based on accident chain propagation models

To effectively identify the critical links in an electro-thermal integrated energy system, this paper proposes a critical link identification method based on the accident chain propagation model and multi-layer network theory. First, this paper constructs an accident chain propagation model for an electro-thermal integrated energy system. Second, based on multi-layer network theory, an evaluation index for branch importance is established using multi-layer network degree. Finally, based on the results of the accident chain propagation model, a multi-layer network diagram of the electro-thermal integrated energy system is constructed. The evaluation indicators of multi-layer network degree are used to analyze the branches of the accident chain, achieving high accuracy. Simulation calculations are conducted on an electro-thermal system composed of an IEEE 33-node power system and a 32-node thermal system to validate the correctness and effectiveness of the proposed method.