Evaluating and Forecasting Undergraduate Dropouts Using Machine Learning for Domestic and International Students

Undergraduate dropout is a multidimensional phenomenon with implications for higher education, economic development, and social and cultural transformation, posing complex challenges for society as a whole. To address this, universities require effective dropout risk assessments for both domestic and international students, enabling the implementation of tailored strategies and support. This study sourced a dataset from multiple faculties, comprising 3544 records for domestic students (Portuguese) and 86 for international students, considering 23 features. To balance the data, Conditional Tabular Generative Adversarial Networks were utilized to generate 487 synthetic samples with comparable statistical characteristics for training (85%) while retaining the original 86 real samples for testing (15%), thus maintaining an identical train–test split for evaluating domestic students. An Automated Machine Learning framework, employing ensemble learning algorithms, achieved outstanding performance, with the Light Gradient Boosting Machine proving the most effective for domestic students and Categorical Boosting for international students, both achieving test accuracies exceeding 0.90. The analysis revealed that improving academic performance during the first and second semesters was key to reducing dropout risks. Once a satisfactory level was reached, further improvements had minimal impact. Therefore, the focus should be on achieving satisfactory grades. Other objective identity factors, such as age and gender, were less influential than academic performance. A web-based application incorporating the developed models was created, offering an open-access tool for forecasting dropout risks, with all code made publicly available for further research into undergraduate performance, which could be extended to other nations.