Energy Transition Risk Assessment: Concepts, Indicators, and Methodological Issues

Effective identification and assessment of various energy transition risks are essential for ensuring energy security. This study conducts a systematic review of the literature on energy transition risk assessment, with three principal objectives: ① establishing a standardized risk taxonomy, ② analyzing the characteristics of current assessment methodologies, and ③ identifying the priority research directions. First, energy transition risks are structured into two categories: implementation risks and consequential risks. Subsequently, assessment methodologies are categorized into five methodological groups: the indicator approach, probabilistic risk assessment approach, econometric approach, simulation approach, and hybrid approach. This analysis reveals a growing scholarly focus on consequential risks, particularly those affecting the energy system and economic system. The evolution of research shows a progression from macro-level analyses to micro-level investigations, accompanied by methodological advancement from simple indicator approach to the more sophisticated computational models. Future research may prioritize investigating multi-risk interactions and developing comprehensive assessment frameworks to address the complex risk landscape faced by diverse stakeholders in the energy transition.