An analysis of underlying relationships between factors related to operating costs and revenue in Australian vineyards

The Australian wine industry is a major contributor to Australia’s agricultural sector and economy. As global demands change and new pressures on the industry present themselves, adopting sustainable practices has become essential. Through a nationwide data set collected over ten years, we link critical variables in determining vineyard operational costs and revenue using XGBoost. We show the interrelated nature of these variables and their comparative influence using Sankey and Chord diagrams. Furthermore, we relate these variables to different wine regions, highlighting the complex influence of location on the use of different resources. This study provides valuable insights into the multifaceted dynamics governing operational costs and revenue, highlighting in particular how resource use, regional characteristics, and vineyard management practices interact to shape economic outcomes and sustainability in the Australian wine industry. Key operational factors, such as fuel, water, insecticide and fungicide use, and yield emerge as the dominant drivers of economic performance, their influence moderated by scale and regional contexts. We conclude that profitability and sustainability are driven by managing resource inputs relative to regional circumstances and economies of scale, whilst also being sensitive to operational decisions such as the frequency of tractor use in spraying and vine management. Our models explain 77% of revenue variance and 80% of operating-cost variance; as a result, we recommend region-tailored resource-efficiency incentives, further participation in national sustainability reporting to strengthen data quality, and decision-support tools that convert machine-learning insights, linking these outcomes to operational decisions and resource management. • The Australian wine industry is a major contributor to Australia’s agricultural sector and economy. • Linked key factors that determining vineyard operational costs and revenue through the use of XGBoost. • Illustrates the interrelated nature of vineyard’s factors and the com- parative influence they have on one another. • Connected variables to different wine regions, highlighting the complex influence of location on the use of different resources.