Disentangling Vereda Wetlands Determinants Across a Wide Geographic Extent

<title>Abstract</title> <italic>Veredas</italic> are wetlands from the Brazilian Cerrado hotspot biome, noted for their rich biodiversity and ecosystem services, including water provision and carbon storage. They are characteristically found in gently sloping, low-lying valleys, where the water table emerges and flows slowly. However, their distribution and abiotic drivers remain poorly understood. Thus, we tested the hypotheses that water availability (i.e., precipitation) has a positive effect on <italic>Veredas</italic> ’ distribution, while steep terrains (i.e., slope variance) have a negative effect. We used a grid-based approach to capture fine-scale variation across the Triângulo Mineiro and Alto Paranaíba (TMAP) region. We also investigated the effects of multiple climate, terrain, and soil variables in explaining <italic>Veredas</italic> occurrence. Our results supported the hypothesis regarding water availability, as the precipitation of the driest month positively influenced the probability of <italic>Veredas</italic> occurrence, explaining 5.4% of the variance. Furthermore, our results supported the hypothesis regarding slope variance, as it negatively influenced both the probability of occurrence and the abundance of <italic>Veredas</italic> , explaining 8.8% and 9.4% of the variance, respectively. Microregions with <italic>Veredas</italic> differed from those without across 23 terrain, soil, and climatic variables, indicating that additional predictors contribute to explaining <italic>Veredas</italic> ’ distribution. In contrast with previous descriptive, climate-zone comparisons, this study represents the first hypothesis-driven, landscape-scale evaluation of the determinants of <italic>Veredas</italic> occurrence, suggesting that water availability recharges the water table and flat terrains facilitate the formation of hydromorphic soil and slow water drainage. These findings provide a mechanistic basis for identifying priority areas for conservation and water security, highlighting the need for management strategies that anticipate the vulnerability of <italic>Veredas</italic> to ongoing climate change in the Cerrado biome.