A Novel Method for Predicting Oil and Gas Resource Potential Based on Ensemble Learning BP-Neural Network: Application to Dongpu Depression, Bohai Bay Basin, China

Assessing and forecasting hydrocarbon resource potential (HRP) is of great significance. However, due to the complexity and uncertainty of geological conditions during hydrocarbon accumulation, it is challenging to accurately establish HRP models. This study employs machine learning methods to construct a HRP assessment model. First, nine primary controlling factors were selected from the five key conditions for HRP: source rock, reservoir, trap, migration, and accumulation. Subsequently, three prediction models were developed based on the backpropagation (BP) neural network, BP-Bagging algorithm, and BP-AdaBoost algorithm, with hydrocarbon resources abundance as the output metric. These models were applied to the Dongpu Depression in the Bohai Bay Basin for performance evaluation and optimization. Finally, this study examined the importance of various variables in predicting HRP and analyzed model uncertainty. The results indicate that the BP-AdaBoost model outperforms the others. On the test dataset, the BP-AdaBoost model achieved an R2 value of 0.77, compared to 0.73 for the BP-Bagging model and only 0.64 for the standard BP model. Variable importance analysis revealed that trap area, sandstone thickness, sedimentary facies type, and distance to faults significantly contribute to HRP. Furthermore, model accuracy is influenced by multiple factors, including the selection and quantification of geological parameters, dataset size and distribution characteristics, and the choice of machine learning algorithm models. In summary, machine learning provides a reliable method for assessing HRP, offering new insights for identifying high-quality exploration blocks and optimizing development strategies.