Effects of urban internal and external migration on urban settlement, commuting, and employment containment in Melbourne, Australia

An important task in urban planning is to develop an urban structure that better links residents and with employment locations to ensure economic dynamism and transport efficiency. Increasing labour force spatial flexibility and shifting residential dynamics have added complexity to this spatial planning and transport challenge. This paper explores the effects of internal and external urban residential migration dynamics on urban structure, commuting flows, and employment containment in a large advanced-economy city, at the sub-metropolitan scale. Using detailed spatial analysis the research reveals the geographical details in urban internal and external migration and transport in relation to urban housing and job markets. By comparing shifting residential and commuting dynamics among different urban external and internal migration cohorts, the research demonstrates that the residential mobility of existing residents is a principal determinant of urban expansion and transport changes. In contrast, the settlement of external migrants generally strenghtens residence and work location relationships and shortens commutes in the central urban zones. However, after establishing employment, this cohort shows propensity to follow existing residents in moving outwards, influencing employment containment and transport patterns. By linking the spatial dynamics of urban migration with commuting dynamics, this paper offers valuable insights into urban transport and spatial policy. It suggests that urban land use and transport plans must engage with linked housing issues which are fundamental to meeting urban spatial development targets.