MON-597 Unraveling the Link Between Alcohol Use and Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus: Exploring Epidemiological Trends and Future Projections

Abstract Disclosure: R. Ali: None. A. Dixit: None. T. Jain: None. A.J. Augustine: None. P.R. Patel: None. S. Iftikhar: None. B. Padamati: None. G. Palaniswamy: None. V.A. Mendpara: None. N. Koduri: None. Background: Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (T2DM) is a growing global health challenge, affecting over 537 million adults worldwide. While lifestyle factors like poor diet and lack of exercise are well-documented contributors, the role of alcohol consumption in increasing diabetes risk is often overlooked. Chronic alcohol use can lead to insulin resistance, obesity, and liver dysfunction, all of which heighten the likelihood of developing diabetes. Despite these metabolic effects, alcohol is rarely a focal point in diabetes prevention efforts. This study examines long-term trends in alcohol-related diabetes burden, focusing on mortality rates (ASMR), Disability (DALYs), and Future projections. Methods: This study analyses Global Burden of Disease (GBD) data from 1990 to 2021, tracking diabetes cases attributed to alcohol consumption. Time-series forecasting models (ARIMA and Exponential Smoothing) are used to predict trends through 2031. A Pearson correlation analysis (r = 0.85, p < 0.001) assesses the relationship between alcohol intake and diabetes burden over time. Additionally, a Vector Auto Regression (VAR) model evaluates the influence of alcohol taxation, obesity rates, and GDP per capita on diabetes prevalence. Results: The findings indicate a consistent rise in alcohol-related diabetes burden, with prevalence increasing from 0.015% in 1990 to 2.92% in 2021. Projections suggest this trend will continue, with alcohol-attributable diabetes burden expected to reach 1.7% by 2031 if no interventions are made. The Age-Standardized Mortality Rate (ASMR) due to alcohol-related diabetes increased from 4.59 in 1990 to 7.88 per 100,000 population in 2021, marking a 71.7% rise in diabetes-related deaths linked to alcohol consumption. Similarly, Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) due to alcohol-related diabetes increased from 4.45 million in 1990 to 7.72 million in 2021, a 73.4% rise, reflecting a growing impact on disability and reduced quality of life. Economic factors also play a key role—higher alcohol taxation is associated with lower diabetes rates while rising obesity levels and economic growth contribute to an increasing diabetes burden. Conclusions: The evidence points to alcohol consumption as a significant but often underestimated factor driving type 2 diabetes rates, impacting both mortality and disability. Without effective policy measures, the alcohol-related diabetes burden is projected to grow significantly in the coming years. Strategies such as higher alcohol taxes, public awareness campaigns, and integrating alcohol reduction into diabetes prevention programs could help mitigate these risks. Future research should focus on regional variations and long-term policy impacts to develop more effective interventions for reducing alcohol-related metabolic risks. Presentation: Monday, July 14, 2025