Hydrogen cargo bikes as a data-driven solution for last-mile decarbonization

The growing demand for low-emission urban freight has intensified efficiency challenges in last-mile delivery, especially in dense city centres. This study assesses hydrogen-powered cargo bikes as a scalable, zero-emission alternative to fossil fuel vans and battery-electric cargo bikes. Using real-world logistics data from Rome, we apply simulation models including Monte Carlo cost analysis, Artificial Intelligence driven routing, K-means station placement, and fleet scaling. Results show hydrogen bikes deliver 15% more parcels daily than electric counterparts, reduce refuelling detours by 31.4%, and lower per-trip fuel use by 32%. They can cut up to 120 metric tons of CO 2 annually per 100-bike fleet. While battery-electric cargo bikes remain optimal for short trips, hydrogen bikes offer superior uptime, range, and rapid refuelling—ideal for high-frequency, mid-distance logistics. Under supportive pricing and infrastructure, hydrogen cargo bikes represent a resilient and sustainable solution for decarbonizing last-mile delivery in city areas.