Characterization and Modelling of Environmental Crime: A Case Study Applied to the Canary Islands (Spain)

The escalating environmental crisis and the threat posed by environmental crime demand more effective prevention strategies. The predictive mapping of environmental crimes can address this challenge by improving monitoring and response. This study proposes an analysis and modelling of the occurrence of environmental crimes in the Canary Islands, a territory of exceptional ecological value and strong tourism and urban sprawl pressures. Four types of illegal activity were examined: buildings and constructions, mining and tilling, solid waste dumping, and liquid waste discharging. A predictive modelling framework based on Random Forest (RF) machine learning algorithms was applied to identify spatial patterns and environmental crime potential. A colour-based environmental crime potential map was generated for each island, showing the likelihood of 0, 1, 2, 3, or all 4 types of environmental crime. Findings reveal that 43.2% of the surface area of the islands could potentially be affected by at least one crime type. Potential occurrences are lower in protected natural areas, in islands with lower population densities and in inland areas compared to coastal regions. The methodology provides a foundation for future research which could assist policymakers and environmental protectors in combating and preventing environmental crimes more effectively and contribute to the preservation of their ecosystems.