MON-554 Global Trends in Diabetes Due to Secondhand Smoke Exposure: A Predictive Analysis

Abstract Disclosure: A. Dixit: None. T. Mareedu: None. G. Palaniswamy: None. P.R. Patel: None. B. Padamati: None. N. Koduri: None. A.J. Augustine: None. S. Sahu: None. S. Iftikhar: None. V.A. Mendpara: None. T. Jain: None. Background: Secondhand smoke (SHS) exposure has been widely recognized as a major public health concern, contributing to various non-communicable diseases, including Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (T2DM). Despite extensive research on smoking-related illnesses, limited studies have quantified the direct impact of SHS on diabetes-related mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) at a global scale. Given the increasing prevalence of diabetes and continued SHS exposure worldwide, this study aims to examine trends from 1990 to 2021 and predict future trajectories through 2035 using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study. Methods: A dataset of 320 global observations covering 1990-2021 was analyzed to assess the relationship between SHS exposure and diabetes burden. Correlation and regression analyses were performed to evaluate associations between SHS exposure and diabetes prevalence, with a near-perfect correlation (r = 0.99998, p < 0.001). Linear and nonlinear regression models were used to validate the robustness of the association, where a nonlinear model provided a better fit (Residual Standard Error = 2619). ARIMA time-series modeling was employed to project changes in ASMR, DALYs, and diabetes-related deaths through 2035 to forecast future trends. Results: The Age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) linked to SHS exposure has risen steadily from 8.2 per 100,000 in 1990 to 15.7 per 100,000 in 2021, reflecting a 91% increase. ARIMA projections indicate a further 8-12% rise in ASMR by 2032. Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) due to SHS-induced diabetes have increased from 14.5 million in 1990 to 31.2 million in 2021, and the forecast suggests a 16% rise by 2032, highlighting the worsening impact on quality of life. Diabetes-related deaths due to SHS exposure have escalated from 1.6 million in 1990 to 3.2 million in 2021, with forecasts predicting over 3.5 million deaths by 2035. The near-perfect correlation between SHS exposure and diabetes burden raises concerns regarding potential collinearity, yet the data strongly indicate a causal relationship requiring further validation with stratified analyses. Conclusions: These findings emphasize the escalating burden of secondhand smoke exposure on diabetes prevalence, mortality, and disability. The projected rise in ASMR, DALYs, and Diabetes-related deaths suggests a growing global crisis unless immediate public health interventions are implemented. Stricter tobacco control policies, enhanced awareness campaigns, and targeted healthcare strategies are imperative to reduce SHS exposure and mitigate its metabolic consequences. Future research should focus on age-specific and regional variations to guide policy-making and intervention strategies that can effectively curb the impact of SHS-related diabetes worldwide. Presentation: Monday, July 14, 2025