Examination of Long-Term Temperature Change in Türkiye: Comparative Evaluation of an Advanced Quartile-Based Approach and Traditional Trend Detection Methods

The fact that 2023 and subsequently 2024 were the hottest years in history makes it even more important to monitor temperature changes over time. In this study, trends in the mean, maximum, and minimum temperature data of 81 provinces in Türkiye were examined using three traditional methods (Mann–Kendall, Linear Regression Analysis and Sen’s slope), one innovative method (ITA), and the QuarTrend (QT) method proposed in this study, which uses quartiles of the data series. The objectives of this research are (1) to determine and evaluate the long-term temperature trends in Türkiye (1960–2022) and (2) to comparatively evaluate the trend results of the proposed QT method, traditional trend detection methods, and ITA. In the study, a statistically significant (p < 0.05) increasing trend was found in the mean (0.027 °C/year), maximum (0.031 °C/year), and minimum (0.038 °C/year) annual temperatures of Türkiye. While traditional trend tests detected similar trends with ITA and QT for mean temperatures; ITA and QT detected more trends than traditional methods for maximum and minimum temperatures. The results have direct implications for the impacts of climate change in the study region. The results have the potential to support the development of climate-resilient and adaptive policies for effective water resource planning and management to sustain the environment and agricultural productivity in Türkiye.