Applying Stability Theory to Urban Green Space Management: A Case Study in Shanghai, China

Landscape structure significantly impacts ecosystem services, yet the stability of ecosystem services in urban green spaces has been insufficiently studied regarding landscape effects. In highly urbanized regions such as Shanghai, it remains unclear which landscape configurations can maintain consistently high and stable regulating services. By calculating the monthly values of regulating services in urban green space sites across five years, we investigated how landscape structure and urbanization influence the temporal stability of regulating service bundles along an urban gradient in Shanghai. Stability was measured as the inverse of the coefficient of the regulating service values, further decomposing it into average regulating service stability and regulating service asynchrony, following the ecological theory. Landscape structure metrics included area, fragmentation, and shape, while urbanization was measured as the proportion of impervious surface surrounding green space sites. The results showed that the stability of regulating service bundles was higher during spring or winter compared to summer and autumn. Overall, we found that fragmentation reduced the stability of regulating service bundles, whereas impervious surfaces had a positive effect, both acting through average regulating service stability. Our study promoted a framework for managing urban green spaces to sustain high and stable ecosystem services, highlighting the importance of preserving contiguous green areas to support sustainable urban planning.