Carbon Offside or Tech Hat-Trick? How Innovation Redefines the Playing Field of Sporting Goods Manufacturing

China's sports industry increasingly drives economic growth, yet sporting goods manufacturing remains low-end. Under “dual carbon” goals, high-tech innovation can aid emission reduction via technology spillovers. Using 2012-2022 provincial data and a two-way fixed-effect model, this study examines how high-tech innovation impacts carbon emissions in sporting goods manufacturing. Results show: (1) High-tech innovation significantly suppresses emissions, with heterogeneity across regions, industrial clusters, and factor intensities; (2) Green credit and total factor productivity mediate this effect: the latter exhibits increasing marginal utility (“no inhibition → strong inhibition”), while green credit follows an inverted-N trajectory (“weak → strong → weak inhibition”). These findings highlight the need for tailored policies to optimize emission reduction through tech spillovers, aligning with regional and industrial characteristics under dual-carbon objectives.