Compounding future escalation of emissions- and irrigation-induced increases in humid-heat stress

Irrigation has been investigated as an important historical climate forcing, but there is no study exploring its future climatic impacts considering possible changes in both extent and efficiency. Here, we address these issues via developing irrigation efficiency scenarios in line with the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), implementing these in the Community Earth System Model, and applying them to generate projections over the period 2015-2074. We project that annual irrigation water withdrawal decreases under SSP1-2.6 (from ~2100 to ~1700 km<sup>3</sup> yr<sup>-1</sup>) but increases under SSP3-7.0 (to ~2400 km<sup>3</sup> yr<sup>-1</sup>), with some new irrigation hot spots emerging, especially in Africa. Irrigation is projected to reduce the occurrence of dry-heat stress under both scenarios, but cannot reverse the warming trend due to greenhouse gas emission (e.g., increasing from ~90 to around 600 and 1200 hours yr<sup>-1</sup> in intensely irrigated areas, under two scenarios). Moreover, moist-heat extreme event frequency increases more substantially (by ≥1600 hours yr<sup>-1</sup> under SSP3-7.0 in tropical regions), and irrigation further amplifies the hours of exposure (for example, by ≥100 hours yr<sup>-1</sup> in South Asia), thereby raising the risk of moist-heat-related illnesses and mortality for exposed communities. Our results underscore the importance of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, limiting irrigation expansion and improving irrigation efficiency to preserve water resources and decelerate escalating exposure to dry- and moist-heat stress.

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Publication Details

Journal
Nature Communications
Published
2025-10-22
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-64375-1
Citations
3
Primary Topic
Water-Energy-Food Nexus Studies
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
2.45

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article

Compounding future escalation of emissions- and irrigation-induced increases in humid-heat stress

Nicole van Maanen, Yi Yao, Sonia Isabelle Seneviratne, Agnès Ducharne et al.
3 citations
Nature Communications
Water-Energy-Food Nexus Studies
2.45
article

Compounding future escalation of emissions- and irrigation-induced increases in humid-heat stress

Nicole van Maanen, Yi Yao, Sonia Isabelle Seneviratne, Agnès Ducharne, Yusuke Satoh, Jessica Keune, Yoshihide Wada, Laibao Liu, Wim Thiery, Seppe Lampe, Steven De Hertog, David M. Lawrence, Jonas Jägermeyr, William J. Sacks, Ioan Sabin Taranu, Jonathan Buzan, Benjamin I. Cook
article en
3 citations

Abstract

Irrigation has been investigated as an important historical climate forcing, but there is no study exploring its future climatic impacts considering possible changes in both extent and efficiency. Here, we address these issues via developing irrigation efficiency scenarios in line with the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), implementing these in the Community Earth System Model, and applying them to generate projections over the period 2015-2074. We project that annual irrigation water withdrawal decreases under SSP1-2.6 (from ~2100 to ~1700 km<sup>3</sup> yr<sup>-1</sup>) but increases under SSP3-7.0 (to ~2400 km<sup>3</sup> yr<sup>-1</sup>), with some new irrigation hot spots emerging, especially in Africa. Irrigation is projected to reduce the occurrence of dry-heat stress under both scenarios, but cannot reverse the warming trend due to greenhouse gas emission (e.g., increasing from ~90 to around 600 and 1200 hours yr<sup>-1</sup> in intensely irrigated areas, under two scenarios). Moreover, moist-heat extreme event frequency increases more substantially (by ≥1600 hours yr<sup>-1</sup> under SSP3-7.0 in tropical regions), and irrigation further amplifies the hours of exposure (for example, by ≥100 hours yr<sup>-1</sup> in South Asia), thereby raising the risk of moist-heat-related illnesses and mortality for exposed communities. Our results underscore the importance of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, limiting irrigation expansion and improving irrigation efficiency to preserve water resources and decelerate escalating exposure to dry- and moist-heat stress.

Nature CommunicationsVol. 16(1)
NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research (US), Goddard Institute for Space Studies (US), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (FR), Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JP), Climate Central (US), Vrije Universiteit Brussel (BE), Hong Kong Baptist University (HK), Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory (US), European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (GB), École Pratique des Hautes Études (FR), Leibniz Association (DE), Ghent University (BE), ETH Zurich (CH), Sorbonne Université (FR), Milieux environnementaux, transferts et interactions dans les hydrosystèmes et les sols (FR), Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (DE), King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (SA), Columbia University (US), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam (NL), University of Hong Kong (HK), Aalborg University (DK)
Vlaams Supercomputer Centrum, Belgian Federal Science Policy Office, Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule Zürich, Fonds Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek, Vlaamse regering
Openalex Percentile: Top 10%
Water-Energy-Food Nexus Studies
2.45
DOIOpen Access PDFOpenAlex
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