Accessing acute care hospitals in the San Francisco Bay Area after a major hayward earthquake

Earthquakes can severely disrupt healthcare access, especially in dense cities. Here, we provide a comprehensive assessment of how a magnitude 7.25 earthquake on the Hayward Fault would impact access to acute care hospitals in the San Francisco Bay Area. By integrating seismic hazard with hospital and transportation infrastructure's vulnerability and connectivity data, we analyze 76 hospitals (426 buildings with 16,639 beds) and 5163 bridges within a vast network of ~1.5 million edges and ~0.5 million nodes. We leverage the rich data to formulate a coupled risk-network model to quantify simultaneous failures and cascading disruptions across the healthcare and transportation systems. Our results revealed that hospital bed capacity could drop to 51%, with Alameda County retaining only 20%. Widespread transportation failures further restrict access, increasing regional travel times by 177% and exceeding 1000% in parts of East Bay, potentially fully isolating a hospital and an entire urban community. These findings underscore the urgent need for resilient healthcare and transportation infrastructure to mitigate life-threatening disruptions following major earthquakes.

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Publication Details

Journal
Nature Communications
Published
2025-10-22
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-64354-6
Citations
1
Primary Topic
Disaster Response and Management
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
2.52

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article

Accessing acute care hospitals in the San Francisco Bay Area after a major hayward earthquake

Luis Ceferino, Ádám Zsarnóczay, Jinyan Zhao, Charan Kukunoor et al.
1 citations
Nature Communications
Disaster Response and Management
2.52
article

Accessing acute care hospitals in the San Francisco Bay Area after a major hayward earthquake

Luis Ceferino, Ádám Zsarnóczay, Jinyan Zhao, Charan Kukunoor, Xinlu Xu, Dan Mao, Jingzhe Wu
article en
1 citations

Abstract

Earthquakes can severely disrupt healthcare access, especially in dense cities. Here, we provide a comprehensive assessment of how a magnitude 7.25 earthquake on the Hayward Fault would impact access to acute care hospitals in the San Francisco Bay Area. By integrating seismic hazard with hospital and transportation infrastructure's vulnerability and connectivity data, we analyze 76 hospitals (426 buildings with 16,639 beds) and 5163 bridges within a vast network of ~1.5 million edges and ~0.5 million nodes. We leverage the rich data to formulate a coupled risk-network model to quantify simultaneous failures and cascading disruptions across the healthcare and transportation systems. Our results revealed that hospital bed capacity could drop to 51%, with Alameda County retaining only 20%. Widespread transportation failures further restrict access, increasing regional travel times by 177% and exceeding 1000% in parts of East Bay, potentially fully isolating a hospital and an entire urban community. These findings underscore the urgent need for resilient healthcare and transportation infrastructure to mitigate life-threatening disruptions following major earthquakes.

Nature CommunicationsVol. 16(1)
Berkeley College (US), Global Environment Facility (US), City University of New York (US), World Bank Group (US), New York University (US), University of California, Berkeley (US), Stanford University (US)
National Science Foundation, York University, Division of Civil, Mechanical and Manufacturing Innovation
Openalex Percentile: Top 9%
Disaster Response and Management
2.52
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