Tracing the geopolitical influence and regional power dynamics in Central Asia: a thematic analysis with Neorealist perspectives

This study explores the embryonic geopolitical landscape of Central Asia (CA). It focuses on how emerging great power rivalries and regional alliances have altered its security and economic dynamics. Positioned strategically between Asia and Europe, the region has become a key arena for competition among China, Russia, the EU, and the US, driven by its vast resources, energy reserves, and implications from events like the Russia-Ukraine war (2022). China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has augmented infrastructure investments and trade. This reshaped economic dependencies, while Russia’s military influence through the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and energy exports upholds its dominance amid declining sway. Western powers prioritize counterterrorism, democratic reforms, and diversified partnerships through frameworks such as NATO and the C5 + 1. Using a qualitative methodology that incorporates secondary literature review, policy analysis, and thematic examination grounded in neorealist theory, the paper’s findings reveal complex challenges, including border disputes, water conflicts, extremism, and intra-regional tensions. Moreover, key findings highlight the adoption of multi-vector foreign policies by CA states to balance influences from major actors, fostering both cooperation (e.g., SCO, EAEU) and rivalries. Eventually, the analysis argues that CA will be regarded as a pivotal hub for geopolitical contestation. Influenced by the strategies of foreign powers and local power balances, with implications for global security, the region requires adaptive and multilateral approaches to ensure regional stability.