Locked out of power: The overlooked role of housing insecurity in energy poverty

The dynamics of energy poverty among vulnerable individuals remain largely unexplored, as most existing evidence—whether from developed or developing countries—relies on broad population surveys. This paper addresses this gap by examining the dynamics of energy poverty within a highly disadvantaged group in Australia. To account for potential state dependence, the analysis employs two complementary methodologies: a Conditional Maximum Likelihood Estimator (CMLE) and a two-stage Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) procedure. The study reveals three key findings. First, energy poverty among vulnerable individuals is highly self-perpetuating, with past experiences strongly predicting future occurrences. Second, housing insecurity emerges as a critical determinant of energy poverty within this group, surpassing conventional factors such as income or energy prices. Individuals living in unstable, inadequate, or unsafe housing conditions face a significantly heightened risk of energy deprivation. Third, unlike findings from general population surveys, energy poverty among the vulnerable shows weak correlation with energy prices. These findings highlight the importance of integrating housing stability into energy poverty mitigation strategies and inform targeted policy recommendations.