Driving island sustainability through tourist willingness to pay for decarbonization and coral reef conservation in Nusa Penida, Indonesia

• Tourism in Nusa Penida can drive carbon neutrality and reef conservation. • Tourists show strong willingness to pay for decarbonization initiatives. • Adaptive visitor packages engage diverse tourist preferences sustainably. • Community-led education enhances local stewardship and visitor learning. • Model offers a replicable pathway for sustainable small-island tourism. This study examines adaptive decarbonization strategies in marine tourism, focusing on coral reef conservation in Nusa Penida, Bali. The research supports the island’s transition toward carbon neutrality and 100% renewable energy by 2030. Using a choice experiment analyzed through Random Parameter Logit (RPL) and Latent Class Models (LCM), the study evaluates tourists’ willingness to pay (WTP) across three adaptive attributes: (i) Asset support, referring to the provision of essential diving and coral maintenance resources; (ii) Knowledge experience, involving community-led education and coral planting activities; and (iii) Flexible transportation options, representing the use of solar- or biofuel-powered boats for sustainable reef exploration. Results reveal strong tourist preferences for participatory and low-carbon experiences that integrate these attributes. The estimated Marginal Willingness to Pay (MWTP) values were IDR 1552/coral reef/visit/day for indirect coral engagement , IDR 4269/coral reef/visit/day for direct coral interaction , and IDR 5821/coral reef/visit/day for the adaptive coral conservation experience . The highest MWTP value corresponds to the adaptive coral conservation package, which combines all three adaptive attributes into a holistic community-driven model.