Trends and Future Projections of Cervical Laminoplasty in the US Medicare Population

Study Design: Retrospective observational cohort study using Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) Medicare claims data. Objective: This study aimed to characterize historical national trends in cervical laminoplasty utilization, and project future procedural demand in the US Medicare population. Summary of Background Data: Cervical laminoplasty is increasingly utilized as a partial motion-preserving surgery for degenerative cervical myelopathy (DCM). As the incidence of DCM rises alongside an aging population, accurately forecasting laminoplasty utilization is important for surgical planning and health care resource management. Methods: This retrospective cohort study analyzed Medicare Part B claims data from 2005 to 2022. Cervical laminoplasty procedures were identified using Current Procedural Terminology (CPT) 63050 (without reconstruction) and CPT 63051 (with posterior reconstruction). Procedure volumes were adjusted to account for Medicare Advantage enrollment. Forecast models were fitted using ordinary least squares (OLS) regression models, validated by Poisson, generalized linear, and negative binomial regressions. Model accuracy was evaluated using R 2 , Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC). For each procedure, the model that best aligned with observed trends and statistical fit was used to generate forecasts through 2035. Results: Utilization of all laminoplasty rose from ~963 cases in 2005 to 3642 cases in 2022 after uplifting to account for Medicare Advantage enrollment. Nearly all laminoplasty procedures were performed with fixation. Annual cervical laminoplasty volumes are projected to reach ~9889 cases by 2035, representing a cumulative increase of 171.5% from 2022. Conclusions: Cervical laminoplasty utilization has significantly increased among the Medicare population. Anticipating sustained future demand is essential for strategic health care planning, emphasizing the need for specialized surgical training, resource allocation, and policy adjustments to maintain access and quality of care in cervical spine surgery.