Impact of new energy vehicle market scale expansion on urban green development: evidence from Chinese cities

In recent years, the Chinese new energy vehicle (NEV) market has undergone rapid expansion, playing a significant role in reducing urban carbon emissions. Using panel data from 299 Chinese cities, spanning the period from 2008 to 2024, this study develops a regression model to analyze the impact of NEV market expansion on urban green development and to investigate the underlying mechanisms. The findings reveal that the growth of the NEV market significantly enhances urban green development, with urban population density serving as a key positive moderating factor. Mechanistically, the expansion of the NEV market stimulates technological advancements in new energy, reshapes urban energy consumption patterns, and optimizes both upstream and downstream industrial structures. Additionally, the implementation of policies promoting the adoption of NEVs has proven effective in advancing urban green development. Cities that have adopted subsidy policies for NEVs have seen a substantial increase in the expansion of the NEV market, leading to significant improvements in urban green development levels. Based on these findings, the paper offers policy recommendations aimed at accelerating urban green transformation through the strategic expansion of the NEV market.