A Study of the Relationship between Iraq's International Monetary Reserves, Exchange Rates, and Oil Revenues and Their Effect on the Economy for Period (2004-2020)

This study uses the Granger causality test to look into the causal links between Iraq's Foreign Currency Reserves (FCR), Exchange Rate (ER), and Oil Revenues (OR) throughout the seven years from 2004 to 2020. The numbers show that the FCR has gone up a lot, from around 13.65 million USD in 2004 to more than 70.7 million USD in 2020. The exchange rate, on the other hand, has stayed very stable at about 1190 IQD per USD. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test shows that all of the variables are not stationary at levels, but they do become stationary after first differencing. This means that they are integrated of order one, or I(1). The Granger causality analysis shows that there is a strong bidirectional causal relationship between ER and FCR, with an F-statistic of 4.25 and a p-value of 0.027. This connection shows that the two variables have an effect on each other. Also, it has been found that oil revenues are a Granger-cause for FCR (F=5.89, p=0.010), which shows how oil income affects monetary reserves. The results show how important oil income and changes in currency rates are to the level of monetary stability in Iraq. This study gives important information that economic policymakers may use to come up with good monetary and fiscal policies to help stabilize the Iraqi economy, even when the world economy is going through ups and downs.