Assessment and evolution analysis of urban infrastructure resilience under flood disaster scenarios based on the PSR model and extension catastrophe progression

As global climate change intensifies and urbanisation continues to advance, cities are facing increasingly severe threats from extreme rainfall and flooding. As the critical infrastructure that supports urban functions, urban infrastructure (UI) is both a target of disasters and a conduit for disaster propagation. This amplifies the impact of disasters on cities. This study is based on flood disasters and combines the PSR model and the mutation series model to construct a comprehensive evaluation index system for the resilience of urban infrastructure under flood disasters. In practical application, the Pearl River Delta was selected as a case study to assess the resilience of its urban infrastructure and explore its temporal evolution and spatial distribution between 2018 and 2023. The research findings indicate that: The following conclusions may be deduced from the data: (1) From 2018 to 2023, the overall resilience of urban infrastructure in the Pearl River Delta region showed an upward trend; (2) Guangzhou and Shenzhen had significantly higher infrastructure resilience levels than other cities in the region; (3) The resilience levels of regions such as Zhaoqing and Jiangmen were relatively low. Drawing upon the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals, this study proffers bespoke recommendations for augmenting the resilience of urban infrastructure in the Pearl River Delta region, thereby providing a theoretical underpinning for the formulation of infrastructure development policies in the region.