The Struggle for Syria: Strategic Rivalry and the Risks of Escalation

Abstract This article investigates the rivalry between Turkey and Israel over Syria, which has intensified since the ouster of Bashar al‐Assad in December 2024. The two states have pursued conflicting security objectives, becoming principal actors in Syria's shifting political landscape. Ankara seeks to combat groups affiliated with the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party, build up a friendly regime in Damascus, and establish a lasting military presence. By contrast, Israel aims to secure its northern border by creating a buffer zone against the new Islamist government and targeting Iran‐linked infrastructure. These conflicting strategies have raised the risk of proxy violence or even direct confrontation, especially in key areas like Quneitra, near the Golan Heights, and Druze‐inhabited areas in Syria's south. The study analyzes the military, diplomatic, and strategic dynamics between Turkey and Israel, highlighting points of tension and potential clashes. The study concludes by emphasizing the need for effective diplomatic mechanisms and proactive engagement to manage this growing rivalry and prevent further escalation.