Navigating ASEAN’s critical materials future: Opportunities, risks and strategic imperatives

Abstract ASEAN plays an increasingly prominent role in the global supply of critical minerals essential for the energy transition, defence industries, medicine, and advanced manufacturing. Yet the region’s long-term position in critical mineral supply chains remains uncertain, constrained by severe environmental degradation, strategic dependencies, and institutional fragmentation. This study addresses the following central research question: How can ASEAN as a region transition from a fragmented group of critical mineral exporters to a strategically coordinated and sustainable player in global supply chains? The article offers a novel contribution to the literature by analysing three ASEAN member states’ critical mineral strategies and governance approaches with a tripartite framework tailored to ASEAN’s diverse critical minerals governance landscape. Specifically, it draws on illustrative cases from Indonesia (nickel), Myanmar (rare earth mining), and Malaysia (rare earth processing) to highlight the trade-offs and coordination challenges that define the region’s positioning in global supply chains. The analysis is structured around three interlinked imperatives: environmental sustainability, supply chain autonomy and resilience, and regional coordination and governance alignment. While Indonesia has pursued aggressive downstream integration, its strategy is undermined by environmental issues and foreign ownership. Myanmar exemplifies the environmental and strategic vulnerabilities of informal, extraction-based supply chains, while Malaysia demonstrates the potential for midstream value addition under more stable institutional conditions. The study concludes that ASEAN’s ability to assert a more cohesive and strategic role in global critical minerals markets will depend on its capacity to align national priorities with regional coordination, enhance environmental and ESG performance, and diversify investment and processing capabilities away from China-dominated supply chains.