Comparing multi-model ensemble simulations with observations and decadal projections of upper atmospheric variations following the Hunga eruption

Abstract. The Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha'apai Model–Observation Comparison (HTHH–MOC) project aims to comprehensively investigate the evolution of volcanic water vapor and sulfur emissions and their subsequent atmospheric impacts and underlying response mechanisms using state-of-the-art global climate models. This study evaluates multi-model ensemble simulations participating in the HTHH–MOC free-run experiment with climate projections for 10 years (2022–2032). Model results are evaluated against satellite observations to assess their ability to reproduce the observed evolution of stratospheric water vapor, aerosols, temperature, and ozone from 2022 to 2024. The participating models accurately capture the observed distribution patterns and associated upper atmospheric responses, providing confidence for their future projections. Model simulations suggest that the Hunga eruption-induced stratospheric water vapor anomaly lasts 4–7 years, with a water vapor e-folding time of 31–43 months. This prolonged water vapor perturbation leads to significant stratospheric and mesospheric cooling, resulting in significant ozone loss in the upper stratosphere and lower mesosphere for 7–10 years. Comparisons between simulations with both SO2 and H2O emissions and those with H2O-only emissions indicate that the pronounced dipole response with upper-stratospheric cooling and lower-stratospheric warming is driven by the combined effects of SO2 and H2O injections. These results highlight the prolonged atmospheric impacts of the Hunga eruption and the potential critical role of stratospheric water vapor in modulating long-term atmospheric chemistry and dynamics.

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Publication Details

Journal
Atmospheric chemistry and physics
Published
2025-10-21
DOI
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-13161-2025
Citations
2
Primary Topic
Atmospheric Ozone and Climate
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
2.60

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article

Comparing multi-model ensemble simulations with observations and decadal projections of upper atmospheric variations following the Hunga eruption

Xinyue Wang, Georgiy Stenchikov, David A. Plummer, M. R. Schoeberl et al.
2 citations
Atmospheric chemistry and physics
Atmospheric Ozone and Climate
2.60
article

Comparing multi-model ensemble simulations with observations and decadal projections of upper atmospheric variations following the Hunga eruption

Xinyue Wang, Georgiy Stenchikov, David A. Plummer, M. R. Schoeberl, Yunqian Zhu, Peter R. Colarco, Simone Tilmes, Zhihong Zhuo, Adam Bourassa, Takashi Sekiya, Paul J. Kushner, Ewa Bednarz, William J. Randel, Valentina Aquila, Eric L. Fleming, Wandi Yu, Francesco S. R. Pausata, Shingo Watanabe, Jun Zhang
article en
2 citations

Abstract

Abstract. The Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha'apai Model–Observation Comparison (HTHH–MOC) project aims to comprehensively investigate the evolution of volcanic water vapor and sulfur emissions and their subsequent atmospheric impacts and underlying response mechanisms using state-of-the-art global climate models. This study evaluates multi-model ensemble simulations participating in the HTHH–MOC free-run experiment with climate projections for 10 years (2022–2032). Model results are evaluated against satellite observations to assess their ability to reproduce the observed evolution of stratospheric water vapor, aerosols, temperature, and ozone from 2022 to 2024. The participating models accurately capture the observed distribution patterns and associated upper atmospheric responses, providing confidence for their future projections. Model simulations suggest that the Hunga eruption-induced stratospheric water vapor anomaly lasts 4–7 years, with a water vapor e-folding time of 31–43 months. This prolonged water vapor perturbation leads to significant stratospheric and mesospheric cooling, resulting in significant ozone loss in the upper stratosphere and lower mesosphere for 7–10 years. Comparisons between simulations with both SO2 and H2O emissions and those with H2O-only emissions indicate that the pronounced dipole response with upper-stratospheric cooling and lower-stratospheric warming is driven by the combined effects of SO2 and H2O injections. These results highlight the prolonged atmospheric impacts of the Hunga eruption and the potential critical role of stratospheric water vapor in modulating long-term atmospheric chemistry and dynamics.

Atmospheric chemistry and physicsVol. 25(20)
NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research (US), Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (US), Goddard Space Flight Center (US), Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JP), Environment and Climate Change Canada (CA), Université du Québec à Montréal (CA), Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (US), American University (US), University of Toronto (CA), University of Colorado Boulder (US), Tohoku University (JP), University of Saskatchewan (CA), NOAA Chemical Sciences Laboratory (US), Science Systems and Applications (United States) (US), Science and Technology Corporation (United States) (US), King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (SA)
National Science Foundation, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA Headquarters, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
Openalex Percentile: Top 9%
Atmospheric Ozone and Climate
2.60
DOIOpen Access PDFOpenAlex
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