Assessing NDVI, Climate, and Management to Predict Winter Wheat Yields at Field Scale in Kansas, USA

Accurate crop yield prediction is challenging in environmentally diverse areas. This study evaluated the potential of different satellite sensors to predict winter wheat grain yield at the field level in Kansas, the U.S.’s leading winter wheat producer. Using Landsat NDVI data from late February to June, a linear regression model was able to reduce the standard deviation of predicted yields by over 20% (with a normalized root mean square error (nRMSE) of 80%). The NDVI during the anthesis and grain fill stages was essential for precise yield estimation. A subregional approach that incorporated weather and management data improved results, accounting for 51%, 63%, and 68% of the nRMSE in W, SC, and NC. Results indicate that NDVI-based yield models at the field scale are environmentally dependent, particularly in south-central and western Kansas, areas prone to heat stress and water deficit, respectively. Our findings showed the benefits of an environmental subregional model integrating remote sensing and field-specific weather and management data to improve yield prediction accuracy, particularly in large, environmentally diverse regions.