Research on the Evaluation Model for Natural Gas Pipeline Capacity Allocation Under Fair and Open Access Mode

Compared with other fossil energy sources, natural gas is characterized by compressibility, low energy density, high storage costs, and imbalanced usage. Natural gas pipeline supply systems possess unique attributes such as closed transportation and a highly integrated upstream, midstream, and downstream structure. Moreover, pipelines are almost the only economical means of onshore natural gas transportation. Given that the upstream of the pipeline features multi-entity and multi-channel supply including natural gas, coal-to-gas, and LNG vaporized gas, while the downstream presents a competitive landscape with multi-market and multi-user segments (e.g., urban residents, factories, power plants, and vehicles), there is an urgent social demand for non-discriminatory and fair opening of natural gas pipeline network infrastructure to third-party entities. However, after the fair opening of natural gas pipeline networks, the original “point-to-point” transaction model will be replaced by market-driven behaviors, making the verification and allocation of gas transmission capacity a key operational issue. Currently, neither pipeline operators nor government regulatory authorities have issued corresponding rules, regulations, or evaluation plans. To address this, this paper proposes a multi-dimensional quantitative evaluation model based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), integrating both commercial and technical indicators. The model comprehensively considers six indicators: pipeline transportation fees, pipeline gas line pack, maximum gas storage capacity, pipeline pressure drop, energy consumption, and user satisfaction and constructs a quantitative evaluation system. Through the consistency check of the judgment matrix (CR = 0.06213 < 0.1), the weights of the respective indicators are determined as follows: 0.2584, 0.2054, 0.1419, 0.1166, 0.1419, and 0.1357. The specific score of each indicator is determined based on the deviation between each evaluation indicator and the theoretical optimal value under different gas volume allocation schemes. Combined with the weight proportion, the total score of each gas volume allocation scheme is finally calculated, thereby obtaining the recommended gas volume allocation scheme. The evaluation model was applied to a practical pipeline project. The evaluation results show that the AHP-based evaluation model can effectively quantify the advantages and disadvantages of different gas volume allocation schemes. Notably, the gas volume allocation scheme under normal operating conditions is not the optimal one; instead, it ranks last according to the scores, with a score 0.7 points lower than that of the optimal scheme. In addition, to facilitate rapid decision-making for gas volume allocation schemes, this paper designs a program using HTML and develops a gas volume allocation evaluation program with JavaScript based on the established model. This self-developed program has the function of automatically generating scheme scores once the proposed gas volume allocation for each station is input, providing a decision support tool for pipeline operators, shippers, and regulatory authorities. The evaluation model provides a theoretical and methodological basis for the dynamic optimization of natural gas pipeline gas volume allocation schemes under the fair opening model. It is expected to, on the one hand, provide a reference for transactions between pipeline network companies and shippers, and on the other hand, offer insights for regulatory authorities to further formulate detailed and fair gas transmission capacity transaction methods.