A New Predictive Model for Open-Hole Wellbore Stability During the Production Phase of Ultra-Deep Extended-Reach Wells Based on Critical Production Pressure Difference Constraints

This study investigates wellbore stability in ultra-deep extended-reach wells (ERWs) in the East China Sea, where perforated pipes (a type of screen completion) are commonly used to support wellbore walls and prevent collapse. Cost constraints sometimes lead to the omission of this support, yet significant wellbore collapse is rarely observed. The instability is primarily attributed to variations in production pressure differences. A predictive model for critical pressure difference was developed based on immersion experiments and single-triaxial rock mechanics tests. The results from immersion tests revealed that, in water-bearing strata, the critical pressure difference decreased significantly, drop-ping by 20.07% after two days of rock core immersion and by 28.35% after seven days. Key factors influencing this difference, such as well inclination, rock cohesion, internal friction angle, Poisson’s ratio, and Biot coefficient, were identified. As production continues, pore pressure depletion reduces this difference, particularly when pore pressure falls below 23.5 MPa, leading to wellbore instability. On-site validation in three ultra-deep ERWs showed that the model’s predictions aligned well with actual conditions, with a confidence interval analysis further validating the model’s accuracy. The proposed model provides valuable guidance for future ultra-deep well development in the East China Sea.