Distribution pattern of hydrogenetic cobalt-rich nodules in the Pacific Ocean and peripheral seas

• This study presents a novel method for delineating the Area for Potential Resource Assessment (APRA) of hydrogenetic cobalt-rich nodules, integrating binary logistic regression and kernel density estimation. • This method identifies a focused region within the Pacific Ocean and its peripheral seas with a high probability of hosting hydrogenetic Co-rich nodules. • The study highlights the limitations of relying solely on ore control theory or statistical methods for nodule resource prediction. Polymetallic nodules are one of the most promising mineral resources available for deep-sea exploitation. The cobalt content in hydrogenetic nodules is comparable to that found in terrestrial hydrothermal and volcanic polymetallic cobalt deposits, identifying these nodules as a significant potential source of cobalt from the ocean floor. Understanding the spatial distribution pattern of hydrogenetic cobalt-rich nodules is therefore essential for advancing the development of deep-sea cobalt resources. This study concentrates on the Pacific Ocean and its peripheral seas. Using data on ore-controlling parameters such as global marine sediment thickness, calcium carbonate (CaCO 3 ) concentration in surface sediments, primary productivity, near-bottom current velocity, water depth and elevation, and near-bottom dissolved oxygen levels, along with information on Pacific polymetallic nodule types, the spatial occurrence of hydrogenetic cobalt-rich nodules was estimated through a combination of binary logistic regression and kernel density analysis. The findings reveal that both mineralization principles and the spatial resolution of ore-controlling datasets significantly influence predictive accuracy. The results demonstrate that hydrogenetic cobalt-rich nodules in the Pacific Ocean are primarily located in low-latitude zones of the western Pacific, including the Mariana Basin, the Philippine Basin, the northern Central Pacific Basin, and the northern Southwest Pacific Basin. Additional occurrences have been identified near 60 degrees south latitude in the Southern Ocean. Multiple environmental and geological parameters govern the spatial distribution of these nodules, though the theoretical ore-control framework and statistical outputs are not entirely aligned. Among the controlling parameters, sediment thickness and primary productivity emerge as the dominant factors affecting the predicted distribution of hydrogenetic cobalt-rich nodules.