System Dynamic Modelling for the Development of Smallholder Dairy Farming in Java Island, Indonesia

ABSTRACT Dairy farming in Indonesia is predominantly managed by smallholder farmers, necessitating development policies that consider small‐scale farming. The growth of the dairy cattle population has remained relatively stagnant, while national milk production only meets 20% of the domestic demand. This study aims to develop a dynamic modelling framework for dairy cattle development that can be used as a policy simulation. The research was conducted by surveying all 152 dairy farmers in Banyumas Regency. The research methodology employed a systems thinking and systems dynamics approach. The results indicate that the model contains three reinforcing and four balancing loops that impact system behaviour. Model simulations recommend strategies to enhance milk production, which would significantly affect income and the sustainability of dairy farming enterprises. Feed technology is one of the primary recommendations for improving dairy farming productivity, as it can enhance nutritional status to increase milk production and simultaneously increase the carrying capacity, which has been a limiting factor.