Expecting Less and Hurting More: The Cascading Effects of Low Expectations on Internalizing and Externalizing Problems in Justice-Involved Adolescents

Abstract This study examines the role of future expectations in influencing internalizing and externalizing problems in justice-involved youth. Using a sample of 1,216 male adolescents recruited after their first arrest, we explored how shifts in their expectations for success predicted changes in their internalizing (e.g. depressive symptoms and anxiety symptoms) and externalizing (e.g. proactive and reactive aggression) behaviors over a five-year period. Within-individual change models revealed that lower expectations significantly predicted increases in both forms of internalizing but only reactive aggression. These results underscore the detrimental impact of diminished expectations on mental health and behavioral outcomes in this high-risk population. The study highlights the need for interventions that enhance future expectations and foster hope among justice-involved youth to mitigate the risk of developing mental health issues and exhibiting aggressive behaviors. The potential benefits of promoting these expectations through the use of targeted support strategies and resources during the re-entry phase to deter these negative outcomes are discussed.