Spatiotemporal modeling and mapping of traffic crashes using R programming and GIS: a case study of Bole sub city, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

Road traffic crashes are a significant public health concern globally, particularly in developing countries like Ethiopia, where the fatality rate is alarmingly high-reaching 4,984.3 deaths per 100,000 vehicles annually. This issue is especially severe in Addis Ababa, highlighting the urgent need for effective road safety interventions. This study aims to examine the spatial, temporal, and explanatory aspects of traffic crashes in order to provide evidence-based insights for policy development and intervention strategies. Using three years of crash data comprising 17,285 incidents, a comprehensive methodological approach was employed. Spatial analysis using Kernel Density Estimation (KDE) was conducted to identify crash hotspots, temporal analysis was used to assess trends over time, and explanatory analysis explored relationships between traffic characteristics, crash severity, and driver demographics. The findings reveal that traffic crashes are highly concentrated around squares and intersections, which are identified as major hotspots. The highest crash rates occur during the summer months (August to September), on weekends, and during peak traffic hours-morning (6 AM-12 PM) and afternoon (12 PM-6 PM). Over the three-year period, crash incidents peaked in 2020 and declined in 2022. Demographic analysis indicates that younger, less experienced, and male drivers are most frequently involved in crashes. Vehicle-to-vehicle collisions account for 88.7% of incidents, with 78.7% resulting in property damage only. Based on these findings, the study recommends improving data collection systems for continuous monitoring, upgrading road infrastructure in high-risk areas, and implementing educational campaigns to promote safer driving behaviors, particularly among vulnerable groups. The insights from this study are valuable for policymakers, local authorities, and the community in reducing traffic crashes and enhancing road safety in Bole Sub-City.