Avars in the Carpathian Basin – a craniometric point of view

This study examines population changes during a key transitional period in medieval Hungary, with particular emphasis on the question of the survival of Avar-age populations. Craniometric data were analysed from 1657 individuals dated between the 1^st and 11^th centuries CE. Six of the most reliably preserved cranial measurements were used in the analysis. Principal component analysis (PCA) was applied separately for males and females. The analysis identified three principal components in males and two in females, suggesting sex-based differences in cranial size proportions. The mean PCA scores, calculated by archaeological period, revealed considerable variability across time but showed similar trends between the sexes. Notably, the Avar-age populations particularly females consistently stood out from both earlier and later groups. This distinction may reflect their unique anthropological characteristics, likely linked to their Asian origins. To statistically validate these observations, a linear mixed model (LMM) was applied with archaeological periods as fixed effects. Pairwise comparisons confirmed significant differences between the Avars and other groups. For males, PC1 distinguished Late Avars from the Hungarian conquest period; for females, both PCs showed significant divergence. Among the archaeological periods studied, the Avar populations exhibited the most distinct cranial dimensions. These findings challenge the notion that a substantial segment of the Avar population persisted beyond the Hungarian conquest. In contrast to previous research, this study offers novel evidence of a demographic discontinuity following the end of the Avar period.