The synergistic effects of green subsidy policies on grain and land productivity in China’s farming sector

China has implemented the three subsidies policy reform (TSPR) as a green-oriented overhaul of ‎its agricultural subsidy framework, aiming to strengthen food security while promoting cleaner ‎agricultural production. This study investigates the impact of the TSPR on grain productivity using ‎a nationally representative micro-panel dataset of 22,116 rural households from 2014 to 2017. A ‎two-way fixed effects panel model and an instrumental variable approach are employed to address ‎potential endogeneity and omitted variable bias, ensuring robust estimates of the reform’s effects on ‎total factor productivity and land productivity. The analysis shows that the TSPR significantly ‎enhances grain total factor productivity by 3.2% and land productivity by 2.5%, aligning with ‎objectives to promote food security and green development. These gains are primarily driven by ‎large-scale grain households, which record productivity improvements of 35.3% in TFP and 17.5% ‎in land productivity, significantly exceeding those of smallholders. The reform achieves this effect ‎largely by reallocating cultivated areas through land transfers to scale-oriented farmers. By linking ‎subsidies to land quality and supporting scale operations, the TSPR integrates productivity growth ‎with environmental sustainability, reflecting its green dimension.‎