Time trend prediction of multidrug-resistant/rifampicin-resistant tuberculosis in treatment initiation centers of North East Ethiopia (2015–2023)

MDR/RR-TB case trends in Northeast Ethiopia exhibited significant fluctuations over the study period. The pronounced decline in 2020-2021 was likely attributable to service disruptions from the COVID-19 pandemic and regional conflict, while the subsequent surge may reflect a recovery of case detection efforts and the conflict's impact on transmission. TB control programs should prioritize high-risk seasonal periods and ensure resilient systems for timely diagnosis and treatment access amidst external shocks.