Unravelling potential plant health threats for the European Union: application of horizon scanning methodology

Abstract. The European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) has been conducting horizon scanning (HS) activity in the field of plant health, in collaboration with the EC Joint Research Centre (JRC) and the French Agency for Food, Environmental and Occupational Health and Safety (ANSES), since 2017. As of 2024, this activity has produced 130 reports, named newsletters. The aim of this activity is to capture signals from the web about potential threats caused by plant pests from all around the world and to convey them to European Union risk managers in support of their preparedness and timely reactions. The tool used was the Medical Information System (MedISys), a public health surveillance system that continuously monitors the content of more than 3200 scientific and media sources worldwide. The items selected for inclusion in the monthly newsletters are reviewed and validated by a team of experts, while another team carries out further analysis on specific “not-listed” pests. This analysis, PeMoScoring (short for pest and monitoring scoring), is a fast procedure based on a ranking system that warns risk managers of the potential new threats by unknown or not-listed pests. These signals can then trigger actions by risk managers: requests for more assessments by EFSA or facilitation of preventive measures. Recently, a series of workshops and webinars have been organised to foster collaboration among institutions engaged in horizon scanning activities in the field of plant health and to broaden the applicability of this service to other contexts and areas of focus. This article presents an analysis of the data collected from the newsletters, along with a detailed examination of the PeMoScoring outcomes and potential directions for future development. The results highlight the potential of horizon scanning tools in the prevention of emerging threats for plant health and their capacity to support risk management decisions by anticipating challenges and facilitating timely interventions.